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Spectrum: Fueling the Mobile Future

Posted: 05/19/11 by Jonathan Spalter

Mobile Future Releases Spectrum: Fueling the Mobile Future Video

Posted: 05/18/11 by Mobile Future Team

Our nation has an extraordinary appetite for wireless products, data, and services across a dizzying array of applications and devices. The massive growth of internet mobility, however, is quickly exceeding the available wireless spectrum, the invisible infrastructure that powers the mobile ecosystem. 

We at Mobile Future have outlined the serious impacts sharply increasing data consumption will have on networks if additional wireless spectrum is not made available soon in this Spectrum: Fueling the Mobile Future Video.

Key highlights from the video include:

• By 2012, more than half of all new phones purchased will be smartphones.
• A smartphone uses 24x more spectrum than a feature phone. An iPad uses 120x more.
• By 2014, 70% of all consumer electronics will be wirelessly connected to the Internet.
• If we don’t allocate more spectrum for mobile, our nation’s appetite for wireless will out-strip capacity as early as 2014.

To watch the video, go here.

Don’t Deny the Mobile Capacity Crunch

Posted: 05/05/11 by Jonathan Spalter

Washington has been predictably (and rightly) consumed by increasingly urgent warnings of an imminent mobile capacity crunch.  The calls for timely action come from the highest levels of both technology and policy circles, and they have set off a classically byzantine inside-Washington debate over allocation of spectrum—the invisible infrastructure that makes all wireless connectivity possible.

Formidable interests lie on both sides of the debate.  In one corner stands the powerful broadcast lobby with its ready access to the local airwaves in Congressional districts across the country.  Broadcasters sit atop a large swath of spectrum they neither completely need nor use for the small percentage of Americans that rely on over the air broadcast television.

In the other corner stands the mobile innovation community, which urgently needs more spectrum to support consumers’ enthusiastic embrace of the mobile Internet.  Of the nation’s 300 million wireless consumers, 90% feel so strongly about their mobile device that they keep it within arms’ reach 24 hours a day.

Pressing down on it all is a new world order driven by rapidly advancing innovation and barrier-breaking consumer choices.  The latest evidence: For the first time in two decades, the number of U.S. homes with televisions has declined, and Nielsen is now contemplating redefining the term “television households” to include online-only viewing as it grapples with the challenge of TV ratings in a digital world.

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski has wisely opted to stay above the political fray and seek the high ground of a ‘third way’ to unlock continued expansion of the mobile Internet.  He’s calling for ‘incentive auctions,’ under which broadcasters voluntarily step forward, offer their spectrum for auction or relocate to a different channel and share the multi-billion-dollar spoils with the U.S. Treasury (which desperately needs the funds to help close the budget gap).  Broadcasters would net a profit (off spectrum they were granted for free).  Over-the-air television viewers would be seamlessly accommodated. And, the mobile Internet boom would continue.

It’s an innovative approach.  What few predicted, however, was the response of some broadcasters to it. Rather than advocating for the most favorable terms possible, they have opted to deny the rapid expansion of the mobile Internet and the urgent need for timely action to ensure the connectivity we’ve all come to rely on doesn’t come to a grinding halt or, more accurately, slow to an excruciating crawl.

Here are three key facts every mobile consumer should know:

• You need more spectrum. It’s simple math. The average smartphone uses 25x the capacity of a basic feature cell phone. The average tablet device uses 5x the data of a smartphone. Already today there are more smartphones sold in the U.S. than personal computers, and we are just beginning to see what these devices can do to benefit our lives and our economy. 

• Time is of the essence.  According to a recent analysis for Mobile Future by Rysavy Research, consumer demand for spectrum could outstrip supply in as little as three to four years’ time.  We have to act now to identify and begin the time-consuming process of making more spectrum available for wireless consumers and building the infrastructure that will get it into timely use.

• The alternative is unacceptable (and easily avoided).  Efficiency efforts and strategic mergers will help, but they alone won’t close the gap.  We are either headed for a world of scarcity, increasing the likelihood of higher prices, rationed services, slower service and other unappealing options, or policymakers take action very soon to support the broad public interest in a robust and continually expanding mobile Internet.

The details of the spectrum debate at times can seem inscrutable and abstract to all but the most ardent of policy wonks.  But the stakes for consumers and our economy couldn’t be more plainly evident to anyone who’s ever rolled their eyes at a dropped connection or drummed their fingers at an unusually long load time.

Addressing the coming spectrum crunch is a daunting political challenge for Washington.  Yet it is one we as a nation cannot afford to delay or deny.  At stake is not only the fate of the Internet in the palm of our hands, but the competitiveness of our nation in an increasingly connected and mobile world.

Broadcasters are indeed holding a powerful hand.  It’s high time they play it.  Debating the terms of the spectrum transition is a constructive path forward.  Denial is neither a sound strategy nor an effective way forward.

This article was originally posted on Huffington Post.

The Spectrum Shot Clock

Posted: 04/04/11 by Jonathan Spalter

As Americans across the country turn to their mobile devices to track the final brackets of the NCAA college basketball tournament, technology policy circles are turning to a high-stakes game of their own: The need to move quickly and decisively to unlock additional spectrum to meet the fast-growing demands of our connected society and economy.

At stake is the rapid innovation, economic growth and huge quality of life leaps being made at the intersection of mobile connectivity and the increasingly diverse ways we put it to use. Modern life is being transformed by the power of the Internet in the palms of our hands. 

The trajectory of our mobile usage is advancing at warp speed. Cell phones have advanced to smartphones, which are now diversifying to tablets. Many of us choose an ‘all-of-the-above’ strategy, incorporating an array of beloved and increasingly essential connected gadgetry into our personal and professional lives. 

As consumers, we take this uber-connectivity for granted. But tough decisions and timely leadership are needed right now in Washington to ensure quality connectivity remains the case.

The nation’s airwaves support various types of wireless connectivity, from smartphones and iPads to baby monitors, ham radios and non-digital television.  In geek speak, we call this resource spectrum, ‘invisible infrastructure’. Over the years, spectrum use has dramatically evolved, with hundreds of millions of new mobile consumers craving faster, robust wireless services that connect virtually every device they touch. Unfortunately, while consumer demand is increasing, the amount of spectrum available to deliver mobile broadband is not.

When more spectrum needed for one use, inevitably various interests will throw a few elbows as they jostle for precious real estate. Policymakers must step in as the referees to determine how best to put this limited resource to its most public-spirited use.

Today, the White House and Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski are leading the charge to free up more spectrum for mobile broadband.  The Chairman is also rightly conveying a growing sense of urgency, warning that ‘the clock is ticking on our mobile future.’

Here’s why: As consumers trade up from basic feature cell phones to smart phones, their mobile Internet usage increases 30-fold. As millions of us add iPads and other tablets into the mix, these video-friendly devices use five times the data of today’s smartphones. Consumer demand for mobile Internet shows no sign of abating, which means more spectrum must be made available soon to meet their growing needs.

Politically, the issue currently pits broadcasters, who were given vast spectrum assets decades ago, against the mobile innovation community, which urgently needs more capacity today. Broadcasters claim as their base the 42 million Americans who continue to use over-the-air television. The innovation community claims 300 million wireless consumers—90% of whom are so devoted to their mobile device that they keep it within arms' reach 24 hours a day.

Chairman Genachowski is challenging all sides to rise above the fray by championing the idea of ‘incentive auctions.’ Under this approach, broadcasters would voluntarily hand over their spectrum assets to the government or move to another channel more efficiently using the spectrum, in exchange for a share of the auction proceeds. Broadcasters would get compensated, alongside the federal treasury, which desperately needs the revenues to close the current budget gap. And, those who pay top-dollar for the spectrum would face powerful market pressures to put it quickly to its greatest public use.

In the parlance of March Madness, the shot clock is running on our mobile connectivity. According to a new report released by Rysavy Research, rising consumer demand for mobile Internet could outstrip existing, allocated spectrum capacity in as little as four years. Most of us have had the occasional experience of a dropped call or missed connection. It’s not something we want to see become a routine occurrence. The good news? The wireless community stands ready to make the massive investment needed to put additional spectrum to use for consumers and our economy. We simply need to push now to get the process underway.

This puts the ball squarely in Washington’s court. Consumers should be able to take mobile connectivity for granted. But policymakers cannot. Over the coming weeks and months, Washington technology policy circles will be consumed by the details of the playbook. But on the quiet of the FCC’s eighth floor and in the halls of Congress, what can’t be lost in the debate is the roar of the crowd. We can’t afford to run down the clock on our mobile future. Policymakers must make their move now to unlock more spectrum for the wireless web and, with it, the next wave of American innovation.

This article was originally posted on Huffington Post.

NTIA Releases Spectrum Reports

Posted: 11/15/10 by Mobile Future Team

Today, NTIA released two reports – Plan and Timetable to Make Available 500 Megahertz of Spectrum for Wireless Broadband and An Assessment of the Near-Term Viability of Accommodating Wireless Broadband Systems – identifying federal spectrum in both the near future and long-term that could be used to meet President Obama’s 10-year goal of making available 500 MHz of new spectrum for wireless broadband. As the looming spectrum crunch grows closer, additional spectrum will allow innovation to continue and technologies in industries ranging from healthcare to education to grow.

In conjunction with the release of the highly anticipated spectrum reports, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and NTIA President Larry Strickling jointly penned an opinion piece in today’s WSJ focusing on the Administration’s goal of doubling the amount of commercial spectrum available over the next 10 years and calling for legislative action to encourage voluntary incentive auctions by private-sector spectrum holders.

From the article:

"The president's spectrum initiative not only presents a unique opportunity to catalyze innovation and investment, but is part of our overall strategy for sustainable economic growth and national competitiveness. Today's actions are important steps towards more efficient and effective government use of spectrum."

Responding to NTIA’s reports, Mobile Future Chairman Jonathan Spalter applauded the efforts of Locke, Strickling, and the organization at large and called for continued action to ensure we can sustain the frenetic pace of wireless innovation, stating:

“Mobile technology holds tremendous potential to connect consumers, create new jobs and stimulate our economy…While these recommendations are an important first step, much more work will need to be done to meet the looming spectrum crunch. The innovation, investment and competition that define the vibrant and ever-expanding wireless sector are absolutely dependent on access to significantly more spectrum.”

To read the full statement, click here.

FCC holds Spectrum Summit

Posted: 10/21/10 by Mobile Future Team

Today, the FCC held a Spectrum Summit aimed at addressing the looming spectrum crunch by discussing novel approaches to meet the ever-growing demand for capacity across wireless networks.  Key issues at the summit included formulating a spectrum inventory, incentive auctions, and the need for more robust spectrum management and flexibility. To read more information about the Spectrum Summit and to read the FCC’s recently released report, “Mobile Broadband: The Benefits of Additional Spectrum,” click here.

House to Vote on Spectrum Inventory Act

Posted: 04/15/10 by Molly Kocour

Congress is making progress on important legislation that is near and dear to Mobile Future's heart - the Radio Spectrum Inventory Act.  This week, the House passed the bill, which is co-sponsored by Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), and charges the Federal Communications Commission and the National Telecommunications & Information Administration to account how and where private stakeholders are using spectrum. It is expected to be passed by the Senate and signed into law soon.  Mobile Future Chairman Jonathan Spalter issued the following statement in response to the bill's passage:

“We applaud the passage of the Radio Spectrum Inventory Act in the House. With wireless Internet usage projected to grow at 100 times the rate of wireless voice traffic over the next 10 years, spectrum is a precious resource. The passage of this bill helps pave the way to make more spectrum available quickly and responsibly to keep pace with consumer demand and enable the next wave of mobile innovation and economic opportunities.”

You can read more about spectrum here.

What’s Next for the National Broadband Plan?

Posted: 03/16/10 by Jonathan Spalter

Cross-posted from Huffington Post

Heading into the mid-term elections, these are divisive times in the nation's capital. But today Washington witnessed a rare moment of comity, as the Federal Communications Commission released its much-anticipated National Broadband Plan. All five commissioners signed a joint statement embracing the broad objectives of the plan.

It will take days, if not weeks, for the various stakeholders to fully digest a blueprint of this ambition and scope. But before the detail-oriented debates ensue -- and the inevitable divisions emerge -- it's worth taking a moment to step back and offer an appreciation of the process that got us to this potentially historic day.

President Obama was elected on the promise of inclusive and connected government. In crafting this plan, the FCC offered a compelling model of how that gets done. The efforts of Chairman Genachowski and his broadband team have been exceptionally open. The three dozen policy workshops on topics ranging from civic engagement to connected health were webcast live and archived online, allowing ample opportunity for citizen engagement. Several dealt exclusively with the potential of mobile broadband, ranging from thoughtful debates on spectrum to discussions of bleeding-edge applications and wireless deployment. Commissioners also reached outside the beltway, holding nine field hearings throughout the country to bring diverse perspectives into the conversation.

As for the product itself, I am heartened that the Commission recognizes the critical role wireless technology can play to spur global competitiveness, innovation and sustainable job creation. Profoundly significant to mobile consumers and innovators alike is the vow to free up 500 megahertz of wireless spectrum. This is essential progress to support the boom in connected devices -- from the iPhone to the Kindle to mobile medical tablets, digital textbooks and future innovations yet to be imagined.

Other regulatory proceedings that may flow out of the plan could be more polarizing. The depth of division and passion on both sides of the net neutrality regulatory debate is well-known. And, the rumors of an attempt to overturn the Supreme Court's landmark Brand X decision, which essentially upheld the privatized nature of U.S. broadband networks, would likely make the net neutrality debate look like a walk in the park.

Likewise, narrower proposals to create new rules -- whether to impose wholesaling requirements or mandate the provision of "free" broadband services -- would affect many aspects of the already intensively competitive and innovative wireless market and could actually undermine the very laudable objectives of the national broadband plan. The FCC must resist these extreme calls and tread carefully to avoid disrupting an American industry that leads the world and is working extremely well today.

Among the cornerstones of the plan is a 'shoot for the moon' goal of connecting 100 million U.S. households to 100 megabits per second broadband service over the next decade. Goals of this ambition require an unshakeable policy foundation that is unequivocally supportive of investment. This means the many rulemakings that likely flow out of this plan must be cohesive in nature -- pulling in the same constructive and unifying direction and staying true to the Chairman's early and firm commitment to fact-based, data-driven decisions.

As we look to the future, I hope the Chairman remains steadfast in his commitment to encouraging a wireless ecosystem that can fundamentally transform our society and our economy. As we begin the long and hard process of translating bold ideas into concrete, attainable and constructive actions, the hard work is yet ahead. It is my hope that we stay true to this open and participatory process and keep in sight the larger goals of advancing deployment, accelerating investment and promoting genuine competition.

History will judge this plan on its effectiveness. If it does so favorably, a nod is due to the process that got us to this day. It's a famous old adage in Washington that you don't want to see the sausage being made. But thanks to the very innovation we unite today to celebrate and advance, a new era of openness and participatory government has arrived.

Jonathan Spalter, chairman of Mobile Future, has been founding CEO of leading technology, media, and research companies, including Public Insight, Snocap, and Atmedica Worldwide. He served as an advisor to and spokesperson for Vice President Al Gore during the Clinton administration. www.mobilefuture.org.

Mobile Future Statement on FCC Debut of National Broadband Plan

Posted: 03/16/10 by Mobile Future Team

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Today, the Federal Communications Commission released a National Broadband Plan, as directed by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, designed to stimulate economic growth, spur job creation, foster innovation and investment, and improve education, health care, energy efficiency, homeland security and more.

The following statement should be attributed to Jonathan Spalter, chairman of Mobile Future:

"We commend Chairman Genachowski and the broadband team at the FCC for demonstrating the vision and leadership required to tackle the challenging task of creating a National Broadband Plan. We are particularly heartened that the Commission recognizes the critical role wireless technology must play in charting a clear path forward and the need to identify additional spectrum to spur global competitiveness, innovation and sustainable high quality job creation.

We encourage the Chairman to remain steadfast in his commitment to encouraging a wireless ecosystem that holds the promise of fundamentally transforming our society and our economy. As the FCC moves toward the Plan's implementation, we urge the Chairman to continue along this bold roadmap to America's future by avoiding barriers that slow deployment, undermine investment, and stifle competition and innovation."

More than just a phone

Posted: 02/12/10 by Mobile Future Team

CNN has an interesting commentary from Larry Rosen, Cal-State psychology professor and author of a new book which explores how Americans of different generations approach new technology.

Rosen cites a recent Neilsen Mobile survey showing that from 2007 to 2009, the number of texts sent by the average teen increased by more than 600 percent. “If you have a teenager (or even a preteen),” he writes, “You must learn how to text, or you two will never ‘connect.’”

More generally, he says, America’s youngest two generations “are defined not by a letter or by their birth year but by their use of technology and media, their need and ability to multitask, their rapid acceptance of anything new and their view of the meaning of technology.” Any way you look at this, it means more texts, more social networking, more streaming videos – increasingly on a mobile network.

For more of Rosen's CNN commentary, click here.