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Tom Kalil on President Obama’s innovation strategy and mobile technology

Posted: 11/04/09 by Mobile Future Team

At this week's Mobile Future forum on President Obama's Innovation Agenda, Tom Kalil of the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy spoke. Watch it below:

Part 1:

Part 2:

White House Official: Wireless is ‘A Powerful Tool to Address’ Society’s Challenges

Posted: 11/02/09 by Allison Remsen

"We're in the adolescence of the mobile and wireless revolution," said White House policy expert Tom Kalil, as he began his discussion of wireless issues and federal policy at today's Mobile Future luncheon in Washington.

Kalil, the Deputy Director for Policy in the Office of Science and Technology, said the Obama Administration understood and respected the immense economic and social benefits of a burgeoning wireless industry.  "We want to create the right policy environment for private sector investment," he said, adding that "[Wireless] innovation is a powerful tool to address the broad range of challenges we face."

As an example, he cited mobile healthcare - "a really promising area."  He also cited the power of wireless in connection with other advances such as nanotechnology, which will soon put the entire contents of the Library of Congress on a device the size of a sugar cube.

At a subsequent panel discussion, Debbie Goldman, an economist with the Communications Workers of America, discussed the linkage between wireless investment and union jobs.  "There are 45,000 union workers in the wireless industry," she said. "Telecom networks are good employment opportunities that offer good career jobs for [union workers]."

Also on the panel was Citi Investment Research analyst Michael Rollins, who discussed the relationship between industry investment and government regulation. "In the telecom industry, you deal with long-life assets," he said. That makes changes in regulation a cause for great concern.

Also presenting at the luncheon were economists Robert Hahn and Hal Singer, who discussed the economic implications of exclusive mobile handset contracts between manufacturers and wireless carriers.  To access their paper, please click here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1477042

Harnessing the Mobile Revolution

Posted: 10/27/08 by Jonathan Spalter

If Tom Kalil has his way, mobile technology and services will be at the heart of American global development policy.

So says his visionary and timely new report, "Harnessing the Mobile Revolution," published recently by NDN, the innovative Washington D.C. policy group.

The next Administration, says Kalil, a science and technology policy advisor at Cal Berkeley, has an unprecedented opportunity to leverage advances and investments in the mobile sector to catalyze critical development goals such as providing safe drinking water, new vaccines, therapies, point-of-care diagnostics, clean energy, and improved crops that are more productive, nutritious, and drought-resistant. And not a moment too soon, he warns, as to date, the U.S. government has largely overlooked the power of mobile services to help improve the human condition. It is time, argues Kalil, for the blinders to come off.

Says Kalil: "Even in the absence of enlightened U.S. government leadership, mobile services will become more ubiquitous, affordable and versatile. But the missed opportunity will be to leverage this large and growing private sector investment (in mobile technology and services) for public purposes, such as ensuring fair elections, helping a community health worker save the life of a mother or young child, and giving a farmer or small business owner access to the credit they need to build a path out of poverty."

Kalil argues that policy-makers in Washington have a historic but limited window of opportunity to work in partnership with the private sector to ensure that mobile technologies increasingly can be agents of productive social, economic and political development. The use of mobile technologies has exploded, particularly in the developing world, where there are now more subscribers than in the developed world. Some forecast that there will be over 5 billion mobile subscribers in the next two years - a fact that has encouraged the development economist Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University to conclude that "the cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development."

Here are some of the statistics the report cites:

• A rise of 10 mobile phones per 100 people is associated with a growth in GDP of 0.6 percent;
• Every 1 percent increase in mobile penetration boosts foreign direct investment as a share of GDP by 0.5 percent;
• Telecommunications investment in African countries such as Kenya and Senegal accounts for more than 10 percent of private sector investment in fixed capital;
• The mobile industry has created 3.6 million jobs in India, not only through mobile operators, but through retail sales of airtime, handsets and SIM cards;
• Chinese workers who travel for their work (e.g. taxi-cab drivers, plumbers, salespeople) have been able to reduce traveling by 6 percent - a productivity payoff worth $33 billion in 2005.

So what is to be done?

First and foremost, Kalil recommends that the U.S. government should establish new public/private partnerships to ensure that advances in mobile technologies and services - especially in the areas of public health, education, civil engagement, human rights, and financial services - can be more systematically accessed by communities which need them most. Creative examples of these partnerships in mobile technology have been implemented in countries like Zambia and Kenya. It is time for American engagement and leadership as well.

Second, official donors - the U.S. included - must direct more investment to increase the number of developing country entrepreneurs, programmers, researchers, government agencies, and non-profit organizations that are capable of designing and implementing mobile applications that address local needs. Kalil also argues that the private sector itself can do more to support the use of its technologies and applications as vehicles for positive development.

Last, Kalil argues that governments must move quickly to lower or eliminate the punitive taxes that have unwisely and disproportionately targeted the mobile industry so the industry can flourish, entrepreneurs can innovate, productive new jobs can be created, and consumers can gain access to better and less expensive services. Mobile and wireless technology is not a luxury and should not be taxed as such.

Indeed, as Kalil's important paper presciently establishes, mobile innovation is now more than a necessity; it increasingly is a vital vehicle for improving the lives, health, and well-being of the least powerful around the world.

Critical mass

Posted: 07/29/08 by Jo-Anne Basile

According to a report issued by the Nielsen company last week, American consumer interest in mobile Internet use remains as insatiable as ever. Of all the citizens around the globe polled in the Nielson report, U.S. cell phone users are the most active in wireless cyberspace. However, they still want more battery life, unlimited data packages, and even more new and innovative services.

The report found that 15.6% of Americans access the Internet on their cell phones, followed by the U.K. at 12.9%. Among wireless devices, a massive 82% of iPhone users were found to access the Internet with it, five times the average amount for mobile subscribers. Reviews of the new iPhone models express concern over whether the iPhone's difficult-to-change batteries can supply enough power to support extended web usage of AT&T's new and highly advanced 3G network. This unanticipated battery life demand is symptomatic of the general findings in the Nielsen report, which said that 38% of mobile Internet users cited battery life as their most preferred improvement, followed by larger screen size (22%), more memory (21%) and improved data input (20%).

Even following the arrival of enhanced service access, more efficient multimedia storage, and technological revamping, mobile Internet consumers are draining their batteries without satisfaction. The Nielsen report said the yearly Web access growth was up 28% with average subscribers, up almost 20% from the previous year-over-year statistic.

Mobile Internet users' yearning - despite such growth - for further technological improvement to meet their demands suggests that the mobile Internet market is capable of supporting waves of new innovation and capital investment. The report reads: "Mobile Internet is today at a point of sufficient mass to sustain a chain reaction of rapid growth in consumer adoption and, in turn, mobile Internet marketing...it has reached critical mass through a confluence of device availability, network speeds, content availability and, most importantly, consumer interest."

Mobile Internet usage has come a long way, and yet still offers possibilities for the future.

 

Changing world of wireless

Posted: 06/10/08 by Jo-Anne Basile

The world of wireless is changing.  Ten years ago, it was inconceivable that you could check email, surf the Internet, listen to music and play games using only your phone.  Today, you need only look at the iPhone, Blackberry Curve or Palm Treo to realize that you can do all of the activities listed above and so much more.  The advances in cell phone utility is just starting to realize its potential, and experts forecast that over the next decade, the wireless industry will continue to boom.  

Forecasters predict that:

• By the year 2018, wireless broadband technology is expected to generate approximately $860 billion in additional gross domestic product. 
• In the next eight years, the projected total value of wireless broadband and mobile voice services is expected to exceed $427 billion. 
• By 2016, the US is projected to have 81.9 million enterprise users, with 83% using wireless broadband.

These figures are all from the recently-released Ovum Report.  The Ovum Report is a study funded by the CTIA (Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association), which focused on the impact that the use and deployment of wireless broadband technology currently has, and is projected to have on the U.S. economy. The 2008 study was a follow-up to the 2005 Ovum Report, which studied the macroeconomic impact of the U.S. industry.

These findings affirm that while wireless technology is important to most Americans, its continued growth is also vital to the U.S. economy.  Economic gains were most evident in the healthcare and small business sectors.  According to the report, "in 2005, productivity improvements due to use of mobile broadband solutions across the U.S. health care industry were valued at $6.9 billion."  That number is expected to triple by 2016.  While healthcare has witnessed big gains, the increase in productivity due to mobile wireless services carries across the board and was valued at $185 billion in 2005. And despite current economic difficulties, wireless technology has enabled businesses to increase efficiency and productivity benefitting the economy.   

With figures quoted in the billions, I sometimes find it hard to wrap my head around the reality of the situation.   However, when I look at my cell phone, I realize how far the industry has come. What was once a brick-sized calling device is now a computer weighing only ounces.  Yet, this realization is dwarfed by the enormous potential that the wireless industry has in store for the future.  What is technologically inconceivable today may be the reality of tomorrow.

 

The Spectrum Commission

Posted: 04/25/08 by Chris Parandian

As many futurists know, I was covering the WCA conference in DC this week. Accordingly, I had the opportunity to hear a FCC Roundtable with the wireless staffers for the respective FCC Commissioners. It was very informative.

Fred Campbell (Chief, Wireless Telecommunications Bureau) kicked off the discussion and mentioned his priority to successfully get the D Block auctioned by the end of the DTV transition. Obviously, there are issues regarding the conditions that are a part of holding that license but getting the D Block done was a sentiment shared by all the participants. Mr. Campbell also mentioned his goal of making sure that the AWS III (2155-2175MHz) spectrum got allocated in 9 months (as specified in the NPRM). He did not elaborate on whether that spectrum would be licensed or unlicensed spectrum.

Bruce Gottlieb (Commissioner Copps) mentioned his continued interest in carriers opening up their networks and believes that this move will help unleash more innovations in the wireless sector. He is pleased with the Commission's efforts to get spectrum out in the market but believes the results are a "mixed bag." For instance, he is concerned with excessive concentration of wireless spectrum and is interested in seeing some wholesaling requirements on future allocations.

Renee Roland Crittendon (Commissioner Adelstein) believes oversight of the DTV transition is important and will be watching related education efforts to inform folks of the transition. Ms. Crittendon supports future wholesaling conditions and emphasized that tradeoffs are a part of these policy decisions. She also is interested in making sure spectrum is not sitting fallow and is made available for service providers.

Wayne Leighton (Commissioner Tate) stated that Ms. Tate is passionate about broadband deployment as well as making sure the DTV transition is successful. With regard to wireless broadband deployment, Mr. Leighton is concerned that the weakening capital markets could be an impediment to some of those efforts.

Overall, a very informative panel and all the representatives were excited about our mobile future...

Starting a Revolution

Posted: 03/11/08 by Jo-Anne Basile

It was a cool day in October 1981 when they flipped the switch in Chicago, beginning communications revolution for Americans, which we call cell phones.

It boggles the mind to think about where we've come in these 27 years. The number of users is staggering: today there are nearly 250 million users in the U.S. and 3.3 billion wireless devices in use on the planet, and with more than 1,000 activated each minute. What's even more amazing is how many different uses of wireless devices we have today. In a little more than 25 years the use of wireless devices has evolved from the simple voice-communicating, the mundane-to the sophisticated transport of critical data and video - medical, financial and more. Wireless also has the unique honor of providing the link that will fuel economic development for nations throughout the world. Yes, indeed, given the opportunity, humans have discovered endless ways to make use of wireless technology. Although the illustrations are too numerous to list, if we focus on a few, it helps put the communications revolution squarely in place.

A particularly good example of how wireless creates change is how it can jumpstart lesser developed nations into the global marketplace. Confronted with the need for a reliable communications network where little or no infrastructure existed, countries have turned to wireless as the most efficient and economical network to build quickly. This happened in the mid-1990's when many of the Eastern block nations, newly freed from the old Soviet Union, turned to wireless as the only communications tool that could link businesses with vital opportunities. Now, with the ability to connect reliably and quickly to the outside world economic opportunities previously closed off became open.

In less than three decades, about half the world's population uses wireless technology in big and small ways every day. Wireless is not only a revolution in technology but it has created a revolution wherever it has gone. Stay tuned to this spot as we explore more of the "revolution" that wireless built in future blogs.

Innovative loan program aiding in rural broadband deployment

Posted: 03/04/08 by Diane Smith

The Washington Post recently reported that one of the first things new Agriculture Secretary Edward Schafer did was to make it a priority to ensure the Rural Utility Service improved its loan process so companies can provide broadband to rural America.
 
It is just this type of program that, if properly implemented, is government at its best. Thanks to this partnership between the Agriculture Department and private industry that began in the 1920s, rural America has clean drinking water, electricity and telephone service.
 
For nearly a century, the Agriculture Department and the private sector have worked to ensure rural America has basic infrastructure, and in the 21st century broadband is a basic service. For small communities to thrive, being connected to the rest of the world is a necessity and broadband is their link to economic development, educational opportunities, and even opera.
 
Yet, as much as these communities may want something, the economic incentives must be there to deploy the infrastructure, whether it be fiber, cable or wireless towers. It is expensive to serve these areas and the return on that investment can be a long time in coming in sparsely populated areas. That is a tricky proposition for any company seeking traditional financing, where a return on the investment is often expected within a 12-month period. Because that isn’t always possible, the loan program made available by the Rural Utility Service is very important.
 
Take for example, Montana, where less than a million people live in a state that spans more than 147,000 square miles. Wireless broadband technology can be a cost-effective way to deploy broadband and in some cases it may be the most feasible way given the terrain and physical conditions of the land.
 
No matter which technology is being used, it takes significant investments to build broadband networks and offer service.  I wish Secretary Schafer luck in his efforts to make the RUS loans more readily available to those who want to offer broadband in rural areas.
 
This is the way government should be involved in the wireless industry – making available the needed resources to those who can deliver the much-needed services.

Metamorphosis

Posted: 02/27/08 by Jonathan Spalter

met·a·mor·pho·sis

1. A transformation, as by magic or sorcery.

Havana has given us much more than cigars.  It was there, in 1848, that Antonio Meucci filed and was awarded patent (caveat #3335) for his invention of the telephone.  Meucci never commercialized his vision.  He lost his patent because he was not able to pay renewal fees.  Though Meucci died in poverty, his vision, some 160 years, has so transformed how human beings work, play, learn, and earn, that it truly must be described as a metamorphosis.

How else but by some magic or sorcery could the original idea of point to point wired voice communications have evolved to our current world of wireless, ubiquitous, and mobile connectivity?  Today, there are several nations which have more cell phones than citizens.  Some two billion people today have subscriptions for mobile services.  These devices, and the applications, services, content, and community they embody, are themselves platforms for the idea of convergence in all its forms – technological, commercial, cultural, and educational.

Their potential for human advancement and engagement are only just being conceived.  Most obviously, our mobile devices have become more than mere telephones, they are also game consoles, computers, cameras.  But the limits of their uses are only just being explored.  Imaginative communities, entrepreneurs, and individuals have put mobile and wireless technologies to use as vital agents of public health, as tools for encouraging civic engagement, as hubs for social and cultural connectivity and networking, as critical infrastructure of emergency planning and preparedness, as broadcasting devices, as catalysts of commerce and banking, as educational and instructional aids, and even as fashion accessories.

Their implications for the global economy can not yet be fully imagined.  Beyond the core industries, engineers, product developers and scientists who have been designing the algorithms, software, hardware and infrastructure for mobile telephony, there are now also countless individuals, communities, and companies collaborating, innovating, and instigating new applications, services, and content.

Like so much else in the increasingly networked learning and innovation environments we now inhabit,  the mobile phone has become a platform for enormously imaginative collaboration by citizens at their laptops in their living rooms, as well as by coders in their labs.

We at the newly formed Mobile Future Coalition are excited by these developments, and inspired by the implications of mobile technology for our nation, our communities, and our families.  We believe that innovation in mobile and wireless technology will only accelerate, and in so doing serve the greater good.  We believe that we are still in the very early days of our era of mobile technology.  And to ensure its continued evolution and innovation as a force for economic, cultural, scientific and community advancement, all stakeholders who care about mobile technologies – industry, communities, governments, the academy, the media, and individual innovators – will benefit by learning from each other, by listening to each other, and by collaborating with each other.

That is what Mobile Future is about.  Our aim is to be an open, accessible and value-added educational platform for bringing all those who care about the mobile technologies together in common cause to discuss and learn about key issues that will impact the continued metamorphosis of the mobile and wireless technologies as a key engine for economic and social growth and innovation in the United States and around the world.  We especially hope to serve as a useful and sturdy bridge between those who innovate and those who regulate to ensure the greatest possible transparency, openness and mutual education.

Join us. Collaborate with us. Though we are 160 years on from Antonio Meucci’s remarkable innovation, in the grander scheme of things, we have only just begun. Let us know what you are thinking.